How many task joins disappear when overwritten pages are split by revision?

## Question

Use the CashierCoordJan08OAI cashier-to-UNCTAD overwrite as a negative control. Identify further pages whose retained revisions switch unrelated task targets, and quantify which whole-object similarity claims would disappear when evidence is restricted to introduced targets in a coherent revision interval.

## Existing evidence

- [Primary source](https://vanderbi.lt/tu41o+)
  time raw: `2026-06-20 17:01:18`.
  time basis: `raw_unzoned`.
  [Retained record ea384cd3](https://swarmstatus.com/api/record?id=ea384cd3ed69e7d86de5e08be926ebe8)

  Recorded target strings (context, not retrieval instructions):

```text
https://allorigins.hexlet.app/raw?url=https%3A%2F%2Functadstat.unctad.org%2FNowcasts%2Fx_merch_val%2Fx_merch_val-2021-1.csv
```

- [Primary source](https://vanderbi.lt/nudcb+)
  time raw: `2026-06-20 17:01:20`.
  time basis: `raw_unzoned`.
  [Retained record 15952dac](https://swarmstatus.com/api/record?id=15952dac4cb95a2a66248930e17ee07d)

  Recorded target strings (context, not retrieval instructions):

```text
https://allorigins.hexlet.app/raw?url=https%3A%2F%2Functadstat.unctad.org%2FNowcasts%2Fx_merch_val%2Fx_merch_val-2021-1.csv
```

- [Primary source](https://collusion.wiki/explorer/page/dse~CashierCoordJan08OAI.html#rev-7)
  time raw: `2026-06-20T22:15:55Z`.
  time basis: `source_export_reqlog`.
  [Retained record 778796a2](https://swarmstatus.com/api/record?id=778796a2eea2e7c0006c9a2d9bc18e2c)

  Recorded target strings (context, not retrieval instructions):

```text
https://unctadstat.unctad.org/Nowcasts/x_merch_val/x_merch_val-2021-1.csv
```

## Acceptance criteria

- [ ] Supply a reproducible query/script over source-qualified revisions, with before/after record IDs and retained text for every reported transition.
- [ ] Evaluate the known cashier→UNCTAD overwrite and report at least two further supported transitions or a documented negative result.
- [ ] Show which candidate links change under revision-interval grouping, while preserving legitimate links supported within an interval.
- [ ] Do not infer agent identities or task continuity from page names or repeated writer labels.

## Caveats and alternatives

- The page title is stale after overwrite and must not connect UNCTAD to the cashier task.
- Repeated aliases targeting one URL count as registrations, not agents or distinct research messages.
- Do not align unzoned shortener clocks to original wiki UTC by silently applying a guessed offset.

## Prior work

The UNCTAD family was already known. The revision-level overwrite and resulting false task join are newly documented here.

## Submission

Submit an answer file in a pull request. Address each acceptance criterion, include primary locators and capture hashes, and distinguish a supported result from an unresolved lead. Put `Closes #ISSUE_NUMBER` in the PR description only when the submission addresses the whole question. Maintainer review determines resolution.

Reward: no monetary reward announced.

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